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- Cost Of Blackjack Insurance Casino Ny
- What Is Insurance In Blackjack
- Blackjack Insurance Strategy
- Cost Of Blackjack Insurance Casino 2017
The reason why passing on insurance in blackjack is recommended is because the dealer will only show up with a blackjack 30.87% of the time. However, to breakeven on the insurance bet you need a 10-point card to show up 1 out of 3 times (33%). With the jackpot increasing until it is won and a chance to win a percentage of it as well as the full amount, Progressive Blackjack is well worth a go. Progressive Blackjack Rules. Progressive Blackjack is a standard version of Blackjack that has an optional side bet, usually costing £1/€1/$1 depending on the currency you are using.
- The Cost of Cover Plays. By Nicholas G. The first step an Advantage Player takes when they decide to attack a casino game, whether its blackjack, three card poker, craps, or any other game that resides in a casino, for profit is to determine the optimal play strategy for that particular game.
- Blackjack Insurance: A Side Bet, Nothing More. Answer: Many players are confused about the way insurance works because, in casino jargon, you are “insuring your hand.” Insurance is a side bet, and has nothing to do with the results of your blackjack hand.You are simply betting that the dealer has a ten in the hole. If he does, you win 2-to-1.
- “Insurance companies will generally fight for every dollar before paying it out,” said one industry expert who spoke to Casino.org and asked not to be named. “Nothing is a given.”.
When playing blackjack, you may occasionally find that you have the opportunity to make an additional wager called “insurance.” This is one of the lesser known aspects of the game of blackjack, and it’s often a subject of much debate. But what exactly is blackjack insurance? And how do you know whether or not it will improve your odds of beating the dealer and making more money off of the game? Despite what you may have been told, it’s a little more complicated than simply placing a side bet.
Blackjack insurance involves a side bet in case the dealer gets a blackjack.
What is Blackjack Insurance?
Blackjack insurance is an optional extra bet that players can make when the dealer’s face-up card is an ace. Insurance can be taken for half of the player’s original wager. In this situation, players are betting that the dealer’s face-down card will be a 10, thus giving the dealer blackjack. Insurance pays 2-1 if the dealer has blackjack.
How Does it Work?
When the dealer’s face-up card is an ace, he or she will ask players if they want to take out insurance. When the dealer says “insurance open,” you may place half the size of your original bet in the insurance spot on the table. After the dealer says “insurance closed,” no more bets may be placed. When playing blackjack online, the dealer generally moves from the right-hand side of the screen to the left, asking each individual player if he or she would like insurance.
Is Insurance Ever a Good Idea?
Most dealers recommend that players take insurance, because the net effect is that if they win their insurance bet but lose the hand, they’ll come out even. Insurance is most often utilized when players have blackjack – this can be accomplished by the player saying he or she will take “even money”. This is because if the dealer has blackjack, the player receives a payoff equal to his or her bet instead of the normal 3-2 payout.
In other words, if both the dealer and the player have blackjack, no money is exchanged on the original bet. However, if the player placed an insurance bet, he or she will received a 2-1 payoff on that money because he or she was essentially betting that the dealer would have blackjack. This sounds like a good idea in theory, but the reality is that insurance often does not work in players’ favors.
How Do Odds Factor in?
Statistically speaking, it is never in the best interest of a player to take insurance, whether or not you have blackjack. Insurance would be an even bet if the dealer (when showing an ace) completed a blackjack one-third of the time. However, only 30.8 percent of cards have a value of 10 in blackjack. Over time, you will lose money if you continually take insurance because the casino is only paying out 2-1 on an event with 9-4 odds. Let’s break it down further:
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If you take insurance when you have a blackjack, you will end up winning “even money.”
Let’s say that your original bet was $20, you have blackjack (21) and you decide to take insurance. There are two possible outcomes:- The dealer has blackjack and you win $20
- The dealer does not have blackjack and you win $20
If you have blackjack and you don’t take insurance, there are two possible outcomes:
- The dealer has blackjack and it’s a push (neither of you win)
- The dealer does not have blackjack and you win $30
Although your expected result is always +$20 when taking insurance, you are better off by not taking insurance. In order for the odds to be even, the payout has to match the odds. This is not the case with insurance.
When playing with a 52 card deck, there are three visible cards in blackjack – the player’s two cards and the dealer’s face-up card (an ace, in insurance scenarios). That leaves 49 cards that are “unseen.” Of those 49 cards, 15 have a value of 10 (assuming the player does not have a 10-value card in his or her hand) and 34 have a value that is not 10. This means there is nearly a 70 percent chance that the dealer will not have blackjack.
When players take “even money,” they will win one unit (in our example, $20) each hand they have blackjack whether or not the dealer has blackjack. This amounts to a total of 49 units. However, if players choose not to take the insurance option, and instead go for the 50 percent extra they can earn if the dealer does not have blackjack, they’ll win 1.5 units ($30) on the 34 occasions that the dealer will statistically miss, and push the remainder. This equals 51 units of winnings.
By not taking the insurance, players will average 51 units. When taking insurance, players average 49 units – that’s two units less (you are giving away nearly 4 percent of the value of the hand). In other words, the payout is not large enough to justify taking the insurance bet. The
more 10-value cards a player has in his or her hand, the worse the odds become.
more 10-value cards a player has in his or her hand, the worse the odds become.
Why Would Someone Choose Insurance?
One of the most common reasons that people take insurance when they have a blackjack is to take “even money” – a guaranteed win – rather than risk a push when going for the 3-2 payout. When a player takes “even money” he or she will win one unit (in the case of the above example, $20) every time. In other words, it’s the safe option, even though it will cause the player to lose money in the long run. Because the payout on the insurance bet doesn’t match the odds, players should never take insurance, even if it is suggested by the dealer. However, it is important to note that insurance is often favored by card counters. This is because they have the ability to tell when the dealer’s hole card has a value of 10.
Cost Of Blackjack Insurance Casino Ny
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Introduction
I would be willing to bet a good portion of my bankroll that the majority of Advantage Players' got their start by playing Blackjack, specifically using a card counting strategy that moves the wager up and down with the count. Somewhere in the first year of their training, the counter concludes that the deeper the penetration (where the cut card is placed), the better game is for the player. But what is often overlooked, especially by table game managers and gaming executives, is that the lower the cut card is placed, the more profitable the game is for the casinos. I know this seems counter intuitive, no pun intend. This will come into focus by the end of the article.
The foundation of my assertion is that a dealer who isn't dealing is not making any money for the casino. When you factor hourly wages, sick days and personal days, as well as benefits and vacation time I conclude that for every hour a single dealer is not dealing it cost a casino $30. This is a standard net loss. An even more staggering number is the opportunity cost associated with a stagnant dealer. Opportunity cost in laymen's terms is how many dollars one course of action costs over another.
Different casinos vary in their placement of the cut card in a blackjack shoe game. Some cut 2 decks and some cut only a single deck in a six deck shoe game. Consider two games where the difference between the cut cards placement is 1 deck. In order to derive the net gain for the casinos for each additional round dealt, some reasonable assumptions have to be made. Those assumptions are defined in the following list.
- Average # of cards per hand of Blackjack is 2.71
- Average number of players per table is 4
- Players average bet $40 ( some bet more some bet minimum of $25)
- 84 rounds of blackjack are dealt per hour
- Average of 7 active tables per casino
- Average Player plays to a -1.3% expectation against the house
*I am ignoring lower denominations because I don't consider the $5 tables that pay 6:5 on naturals and have automatic shufflers to be Blackjack.
52 cards make up the deck difference between cut card placements. Dividing 52 by the 2.71 cards the result is approx 19.19 additional hands being played. Dividing by 4 players per table, it results in 4.8 more rounds being played in the shoe with the lower cut card.
What Is Insurance In Blackjack
52 cards /2.71 cards per hand = 19.19 additional hands
equation 1
19.19 hands / 4 players = 4.8 additional rounds dealt
equation 2
Using these assertions we can derive the additional revenue a casino can expect by additional rounds played.
To determine the additional action we apply the average wager:4.8 rounds * 4 people * $40 = 768 dollars
Applying the average hold:768* 0.013 =$9.98 per hoe
Multiplying by 7 tables:$9.98 * 7 = $69.86 dollars per shoe
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Multiply by 26 shoes per day:$69.86 * 26 = $1,816.36
Blackjack Insurance Strategy
Multiply by 365 days a year:$1,816.36* 365 = $662,971.4
Divide by 4.8 to determine how much each additional round makes:$662,971.4/4.8 =$138,118.95
The opportunity cost for a higher cut card as opposed to a lower one is approximately $138,000.00. The time per round on a 4 player table is 1.4 minutes, and using a shuffle time of 5-7 minutes (using the high side of 7 minutes makes the math work out clean so I will use that).
1.4 minute hands/7 minutes = 5 hands
Every time a casino shuffles they are losing money, and when done consistently over the course of a year they lose $662,971. So it stands to reason that the casinos would want to play more and, shuffle less. This is a benefit for online casino companies who use software as opposed to live dealers for their speed dependent games. But if we know anything for certain it is that most land based casino's hire management personal that couldn't think their way out of paper bag.
This derivation is a stripped down analysis. Things get more complicated when you consider average number of cards for different variations of blackjack, the number rounds played and exact time it takes to shuffle a 6 or 8 decks of cards. Also, the average bet sizes on lower denomination games restructure the hold for the games; the 6:5 win on a natural blackjack also plays a part in the exact calculation for the hold.
The lower denomination games, even with the 6:5 payout still brings in less money on a direct player to player comparison. The last thing is to consider is how much additional money would be taken out of a casino with a lower cut card counters. I think it is fair to say that most high threat players have moved into advantage play techniques that are Beyond Counting, pun intended, so this impact would likely be minimal. According to the Wizard himself, Michael Shackleford, 'The cost to casinos due to induced additional play from card counters as a result of deep penetration is hard to estimate but my professional opinion would be at most 3% of the additional gain via more hands per hour and more realistically about 1%. Every card counter I know, and I know many, have moved onto other more lucrative forms of advantage play. Still, some dabble at it as a sideline. As usual, casino management is least a decade behind the times when it comes to advantage play.'
Some may assert that the card counter density will go up as the games become better. However, past history shows us that as rules improve and a cut card is placed lower the revenue increases. This is easily ascertained when during the experiment in Atlantic City when card counting was legal, the town as a whole had the best week they have ever had. Similarly, when Jack Binion opened the Horseshoe Casino in Tunica MS, his blackjack games were earning more than all other casinos combined. Why? Because his blackjack games were better than the other casinos blackjack games.
The casino doesn't make any money when a dealer doesn't deal. With the derivation in place why do some casinos choose to cut 2 and sometimes 2.5 decks, this leads to a dealer shuffling more and dealing less. We have shown how much a shuffle costs a casino in actual dollars. The calculation is not universal but is intended to establish a trend line of the cost incurred when a casino shuffles more and deals less. Despite this derivation nothing changes. Why? In its simplest form the answer is a casino will not purposely do anything that will lead to a player winning. I think this is paradoxical, because just being in the gaming industry will result in some players winning. The key is that vast majority of players will ultimately give up money to the house; A concept that most casino executives have yet to grasp.